Ann: Full Year Results - Investor Presentation, page-10

How do you arrive at 50 cents? Personally seems reasonable since it's no longer financially distressed, demand pipeline is incredibly robust (resource maintenance capex, new mine growth finally, huge infrastructure work to come and similar levels of wind farm work). They are uniquely positioned at this point in the cycle. This is occurring at the same time the cost base is fixed, new competitive EBA's are locked in for the next 3 years and excess capacity has left the industry (Mcaleese/Rivet cranes, NQ cranes et al). The next 18 months look to be an incredibly attractive time to own BOL (demand and utilisation improving rapidly while industry excess supply has been sold offshore and BOL's cost base is largely fixed). With crane rental pricing at multi decade lows and it starting to move up over the past 6 months, the mistake would be to sell this too early given huge fixed cost leverage (gross margin increasing only 5% increases EBITDA >70%). 50 cents seems reasonable given these companies operate in long cycles and during the good parts of the cycle (like the next few years likely will be), equipment rental companies trade at north of 3x NTA. That would imply a 93 cents share price, so your 50 cents certainly seems reasonable but the skill will be in holding on for as long as possible given the duration of cycles and the market always underestimates operating leverage to the upside. Interested in your thoughts?