Quite simply, buyer interest has run out of steam currently and this is reflected in the stalled share price. I think they've done incredibly well to date, remember that this is a start up. The market is waiting for signals and the share price will move a little, though not too much, with first cash flow from solar stage 1, and then move a lot when the market is given the signal that stage 2 goes ahead. Buyers will realize that the company is a $120m plus yearly revenue company and will see the opportunity to invest in a sound company with large revenues. You may also notice that financial close has been pushed out to 2018 now and construction pushed back to 2nd half of 2018, not the first time that targets have been pushed back, so GNX are not quite as reliable as they would have us believe regarding milestones. But GNX at this point in time are an outstanding speculative buy. All signals indicate that this project will go ahead and there is a ton of political clout behind this one and in a policy area where both sides are desperate to show the electorate that they do it better. LNP have been spruiking pumped hydro, so expect maximum press mileage from funding agreements, with the political message being that 'you can trust us and not them on energy security'. If the project is funded, expect GNX to begin focusing on other opportunities in 2018. For this reason also, GNX is an outstanding speculative buy: right company at the right time. In the short term, we are waiting on NAIF announcement which underpins the overall structure of a finance package and a power offtake agreement with Qld government. It looks positive but I suspect citizenship debacle in parliament may not have helped GNX's cause with Matt Canavan stepping down and whose responsibilities included ticking off NAÏF funding. Be patient but I suspect we are still another few months away from big announcements regarding naïf funding, maybe sooner regarding offtake agreement.
GNX Price at posting:
24.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
