Now
@Pisces, as I was saying....
Two years ago on 7/10/2015 we had a discussion about Aveo Group AOG and I did a bit of chart work as per the reply bar and link here:
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/16133775/single
With AOG's 10% jump today on a buyback announcement, it reminded me to go have a look at how things work out.
At the time it was heading up into a Wave1. I was looking for a point it would top out and retrace Wave 2, with the optimal time to go long being after that completed and it moved into Wave 3. As suggested at the time:
"....I’ve marked the main likely levels for Wave 1 in dotted horizontal lines and light blue shading. My guess is probably the 100% extension (orange letters) at $3.40 is most likely [top] on the chart alone, but the current high of $3.01 might also be it. Maximum run up at a stretch is pretty much $4.30 but I don’t think it will get that far".
The two horizontal light blue bands were the major resistance areas. The lower one eventually influenced the turn of the stock through that and around the $3.40 level.
"........Conclusion:
AOG’s had a good initial run, but I wouldn’t jump on now. I’d let the current run complete and have a significant pullback (nothing guaranteed in trading, but this is as likely as it gets) in the order of 61.8%, and then wait for it to confirm a move up again for optimal entry.
Come back after June 2016 and see how it’s tracking then".
It's taken nearly two years to get through its W2 reversal and this may still not be complete. 50% retracement so far whereas these are normally 61.8%. However a buyback announcement is quite a strong FA change. I haven't read the details of today's announcement, but it should nevertheless still work sideways a bit to consolidate now and it needs to prove the downtrend is over before any long entry. A good one to put on the watchlist though as the next wave up once it gets going should be the longest and strongest. I might wait another month or two but it's setting up well.
Hope you did eventually take that profit, I would have, but knowing your patience I think you're going to be well rewarded now anyway if you held on collecting divvies through the reversal.
Original Monthly chart of Oct 2015:
View attachment 101986
Same Chart today (no updates/changes done to projections)
View attachment 688584
(20min delay)
