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BKL Bad News Looming???, page-120

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Fairtexfighter

156 Posts.

3

14/08/17

13:27

Post #: 26481363
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Originally posted by JoeGambler ↑

So, if we have a crack at valuing BKL using this long term growth rate excluding the boom year we get a value of about 10% pa.

Forecast EPS in FY17 is $3.55 consensus. Long term conservative growth rate we will use is 10%. A fair a conservaitve number.

3.55*(7.5+1.5*10)*4.4/4 = $87.86 value.

So, seems like the market has it right based on the long term growth and the upside would be in the company growing at a much faster rate over the next 5 years.

At 15% growth rate $117.15 value - which is not far off the previous price levels.

At 20% growth rate $146.43 value - this would represent a really successful roll out in Asia one would think.

I think it is safe to say that over $200 was a bubble.

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Hi Joe, you used g=10% and eps(7.5+1.5g)Y/R instead of Graham's eps(8+2g)Y/R seem conservative enough, but the company's past net free cash flows werent as great as its earnings, hope it's going to improve from 2017.
I'm in at 88.

BKL Price at posting: $89.57 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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