Billionaires Graveyard!, page-38

I do tend to think that there is something to be said for the notion that there may be something contrived about where the trade is now. It might be beneficial for some of the big holders to have had the shorters in the market for the past couple of months assisting to lower the share price in order to 1. provide some leverage to get lower licence fees but more importantly to push for media reform and 2. as a result of any early media reform, how they (the big holders) can increase their holdings. But I would not entirely blame the shorters! I am sure that small investors are bailing and there might be some of the larger holders pushing down on the share price as well for their own reasons. Kerry Packer was the ultimate counter-cyclical investor with his treatment of Nine and Bond in the '80's, and if TEN's survival (and market share) can be controlled/guaranteed, then surely it would have to be the Holly Grail of the counter-cyclical investor to buy this network at sub-$100M and then subsequently over time push it back up towards the values enjoyed currently by Nine or Seven albeit in a market with many challenges. I doubt if the Murdochs/Foxtel (just to pick on one of the major shareholders) are going to let TEN crash immediately IMHO as it has the potential to ultimately provide Foxtel with some access to anti-syphering sports (which I do not think are going to go away anytime soon) plus a gateway to showcase shows/programs which are uneconomic for the pay-tv platform but might run on the TEN channels in order to attract Free-To-Air viewers to Pay if Foxtel could increase its share holding. Murdoch believes that "content is king" and content access can work both ways if TEN has a closer relationship with Foxtel. Of course, I could be wrong - I have been wrong before!

As for would I buy or sell now?? $100M is a lot for an investment in poor condition and no prospects, but cheap for an investment with strong long-term prospects. I think that I will just stand back for the moment and see what happens over the next week or so. I think there is something to be said for the Fin Review's assessment's that maybe the fundamentals of TEN are not as bad as some of the early reactions might suggest. It is hard to believe that the negative push on the share-price is purely as a result of "structural change" in the media world, given that the price has essentially collapsed in 6-12 months and these structural challenges have been hanging around for at least 5-10 years, if not much longer. Having said that, I am not jumping in (or out!) for the moment.

Just my 2c worth (let's hope that this is not a prophesy of the future!!).