I don't claim to be an expert but I follow some of these potash stocks and I find it amusing that Shackleton can claim that trucking in 42ktpa of MOP required for 33% of output is 'minor'. I also find it amusing when he talks about brines that 'enjoy a high level of sulphate' as a justification for having to truck in MOP.
The MOP is required because he can't get anymore out of evaporation and the quality of the brine.
It would be fine if the capex was low but it isn't and the upshot of trucking in MOP is that the opex will be relatively high. The saving grace is relatively low freight costs. Lets hope the 35% error is in your favour here.
Of course nobody else has published anything beyond a scoping study. Time will tell how things play out.
As I said elsewhere, if global SOP output is increased by SDIC and other players, any price pressure will put the Mannheim producers out of business first, the next to suffer will be those like APC converting MOP.
HC is about discussing the merits of various stocks, whether a stock is held or not is irrelevant.
You mention share price and Market cap. My preferred potash stock has a drainable resource 8-9 times greater than APC and the scoping study indicates lower opex and a not dissimilar capex for a 400ktpa output that isn't dependent of MOP conversion. The current MC is only $20M more. Not only that but it has a better quality brine that lends itself to upscaling conventional evaporation output and still have a mine life that exceeds any other Aussie hopeful.
I think I am more rational than you think I am.
Clearly I spoilt the party.
Good luck.
APC Price at posting:
12.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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