TFC 7.42% $1.31 tfs corporation limited

My perspective on the Glaucus report, page-8

  1. 483 Posts.
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    Very helpful analysis bookend! I have not yet gone into this level of detail. I also agree with tippy and others that QIN does need to put out a response to the bigger issues raised, and those still queried by bookend.

    Just one small comment though: QIN has confirmed its cash EBITDA guidance. If this is delivered and converts to the level of cash flow expected by other analysts, and QIN management has an excellent record of delivering on guidance, then there will be enough cash flow this FY to fully cover interest, tax, working capital and growth capex (plantation establishment, irrigation etc.). Next year there should be enough cash flow to also cover dividends as well as all of the above. Therefore, there is no more need for QIN to go back to capital markets unless they want to buy much more of the MIS forests. The bonds are locked in until after the big step up in harvests. This is a far cry from the impression given by Glaucus about QIN's financial dependence on capital markets, which may have been correct in the earlier years.

    I also agree that the future price of Indian Sandalwood is the big risk for QIN. However, my reading of this market is that demand will continue to expand at least as much as QIN's harvest expands. Hence QIN's assumptions appear reasonable to me.

    QIN does need to placate the market about the quality and depth of its customers for future harvests.
 
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