The rig count keeps going up which is keeping the price low. I don't think it will start moving until there's some idea of what the OPEC decision will be (May 25th is their meeting). Either they'll cut production to push the price up; or drop prices to shut down the US shale oil producers who have a much higher production cost and are being touted as the US's path to energy independence. If they don't do anything FA says the price should just keep trickling down as the US shale gets more efficient.
I'll also be looking to short the CAD because oil is 16% of their export market. Unemployment is at 6.6%, Inflation is at 2..1% and their interest rates are already cut to 0.5%.
