CTP 1.85% 5.3¢ central petroleum limited

Future projections, page-2

  1. 103 Posts.
    Here's another table I shared some 6 months ago - and implications below

    This shows share price (with P/E=10) for different NEGI volumes and profit margins
                 
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    2              
    3              
    4 NEGI Annual Volume            
    5 Profit Margin /GJ 0 PJ 5PJ 10PJ 20 PJ 30 PJ 40 PJ
    6 $1 0.16 0.23 0.27 0.50 0.73 0.96
    7 $2 0.16 0.34 0.50 0.96 1.42 1.89
    8 $3 0.16 0.46 0.73 1.42 2.12 2.81
    9 $4 0.16 0.57 0.96 1.89 2.81 3.73
    10 $5 0.16 0.69 1.19 2.35 3.50 4.66
    So I think Cottee has WRONG STRATEGY to maximise shareholder wealth.

    Cottee is trying to maximise gas through NEGI, but this requires $40M upfront investment, which he can't find so he is suggesting we sell CTP for 20c per share, to enable someone to benefit from this.

    However, if he were to adopt a different strategy ie maximise shareholder wealth rather than maximise gas into NEGI , then we would be better off e.g.
    Option 1: only sell 5PJ per year into Negi initially which we may not need much extra money to finance say at most an extra $5-10M, this would mean that by mid 2018 our share price should be around 50c depending on profit margin (possibly more)

    Option 2: aim to sell 10PJ per year into NEGI initially which might only require say $10-20M investment (which might be feasible with a CR) then mid 2018 we would have a share price of 70c-$1

    In addition we would retain full benefits from the SANTOS JV
    Last edited by murrr: 21/03/17
 
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