I noticed an interesting and clear chart today & had the opportunity to draw it up.
It shows an accumulation zone as it developed, which may be of interest.
On this chart there is a wave drawn to a certain value (sort of like a point and figure chart) & the volume for each bar is added together to give the volume for each wave, instead of each bar. This is done because when price and volume is sliced up into time, the volume in particular can become unclear or confusing. So this chart shows the cumulative volume for each buying and selling wave. This way you can see how much volume was expended into each wave, no matter how long it takes for each wave to complete, instead of slicing it up into periods of time.
So I put the normal chart below, with the same lines, so you can compare.
Some things to note, Firstly see how price thrusts lower in four waves. And note how each thrust makes a little less ground lower on each push down. In The wyckoff lexicon, this is called 'shortening of the thrust' (lower in this case), it is often written as SOT, and can suggest that the vigor or strength of a downtrend may be becoming tired or exhausted (it is not a guarantee though, a downtrend can find renewed vigor for many reasons, and can start accelerating lower again, so it is only a suggestion or an indication a trend may be weakening).
Also note the selling numbers on each thrust lower (1640, 964, 746 and 1126).
As price breaks down, the numbers are initially getting lower, which suggests that selling pressure is reducing, then on the last (and shortest) wave down, volume increases substantially. This appears to be a capitulation of some sort, where the sellers have basically thrown their hands in the air and given up...then sold their positions to recover what they can from their holdings. This appears to be a climactic action of some sort (I marked it as a selling climax, but it doesn't really matter what the correct name is...so long as you can see that it is potentially an important event on the chart), and if this is correct, it infers that the accumulation process may now start to begin.
So then an Automatic Reaction (AR) occurs as a response to the climactic action, which also has pretty high volume, and is not always to my liking that way, but in this case it appears that as part of the accumulation process, the entire offer stack was bought up to that level.
A horizontal line is drawn across the AR at this stage, as it will often show where the creek is likely to be (subsequent price action will confirm).
Then price wiggles around a bit to encourage holders who are locked into losing positions to sell. And then price rams down quickly and violently, to shakeout those who are still holding on, and also to test the strength of the support in the climactic action bar. Note that the volume is lower on this test (when compared to the climax), even though the wave is much longer....this suggests that selling pressure is now much lower, and that there is potentially less supply in the market now (which will sell into a markup after price breaks out in the future).
Also note that a little spring has formed on the test of the climax (where price broke below the low of the climactic bar and recovered).
So with price on the springboard, and potentially less supply in the market, price begins to move higher again, and is currently trading just below the creek line (whether it attempts to breakout next, or dips lower again, is unknown.......but will probably make an attempt to breakout at some time soon).
Note how less clear the volume is, when compared to the wave volumes.
cheers
- Forums
- General
- Wyckoff trading method
Wyckoff trading method, page-1556
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 903 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)