ERC rescheduled hearing 21st March

Hi Gumption89 – see release this morning.

ERC reschedule hearing to 21^st March from 28^th February. This is in contrast to the 6 month timeline indicated in the last release which showed the hearing was cancelled.

In my view this reinforces the extensive official support shown in a range of official documents for this project within the Philippines and also indicates that we must be very close to approval and funding.

Given my focus on the short position it will now be interesting to see how they respond. The recent change from covering, (over 28 mill down to over 18 mill with share price rising from 25 cents to 45 cents) to increasing the short, coincided with the hearing being cancelled.

I believe I have sufficient evidence to indicate that the short increased approximately 2 million over the week to last Friday and appeared to be a prime driver of the price falling from the mid 40’s to 31 on Friday. On Friday the shorters may have covered 1 mill of the increase of 2 mill which would still leave a short of approximately 20 mill or around 5% of what I have defined as “Free Float”.

I will be following this with particular interest and will update my posts for new observations.
I expect this short will cause havoc to the performance of the shorters and they will do whatever they can to mislead the market of their intentions. Historically, but particularly when they have been making major changes to their position, the data they supply to ASIC can be quite misleading and impossible to reconcile with official market trading at the time it is reported. This happened again with the data supplied for the period 27 Feb to 2 March where the short numbers reported were 19.2 on the 27th Feb, 17.8 on the 28th Feb, 19.9 on the 1st Mar and 20.1 on the 2nd Mar. Clearly these numbers are not correct when compared to reported volumes etc.  I expect this is an indication of a change in shorter behaviour and that covering is now underway again. I use models to fit their data to actual trading data to get the clearer picture of their actual position and believe it to be around 19 mill at the time of writing this post after adjusting for Gross daily short behaviour over the last few days.

Extreme value, with further proof of official support for the projects, together with a short that in my view is high as a percentage of free float will make for exciting times ahead. Upward pressure on the share price could become quite extreme once again.

To assume that Mr Elliot and his executives will not be able to attract institutional managers and large long term infrastructure and pension funds with their clear strategy and projects that are now virtually complete is naïve indeed.