is a takeover possible, page-44

Qantas has the travel public good will, government support, frequently flyer program and market cornered. They got away with shutting down air travel, share price triples after successful restructure. Virgin do not hold the same calibre nor financing. Plus, with booming metropolitan housing market (fuelled by person debt) then spending power of travellers will be in a long term bear market until wages increase. Discretionary spending will continue but not for expensive holidays. Earnings capacity capped in domestic market. Weaker currency will see less outbound passenger growth.

VAH should hurry up and pay off debt and lower unit costs, pay a dividend. No chance of SP increasing unless Qantas has a crisis.

SP seems cheap, but no rush to buy into a bear market.