Ann: Priority Offer to Shareholders closed, page-65

Gassed, a lot of what is posted on this site is opinion. If we just posted facts we wouldn't need this site because all we would have to do is look up the relevant facts wherever they are, for example on the ASX announcements. We are here to discuss our views and we all - holders and non-holders alike - are equally entitled to do so.

As to AKK, I hear what you are saying about giving management a go, and on that my perspective is this. Yes you could give management a go because maybe this time they will get it right. I have a couple of problems with that approach:

1. People often don't change the way they do things, so if we are talking about the same management that's been in place for years, what makes anyone think they will suddenly become performers after being under-performers for many years? What evidence is there of a change in behaviour or performance?

2. But let's say for argument's sake they do make a go of it this time. We do not know at this point in time that in fact "this will be the time". So betting on them at this point would be taking a high risk decision to back them, without any evidence that they have in fact changed or improved. Would it not be far more sensible to wait until they actually have demonstrated some good performance by, for example, demonstrating that they can obtain the borrowing base facility to fund drilling and actually drill, complete and put into production at least 2 or 3 of the 6 proposed wells? Would that not be a far less risky proposition?

To me, a direct analogy for point 2 is going long at the bottom of an extended downtrend. Everybody knows the high risk approach to that situation is actually going long at a low, thinking its the long term bottom - catching the falling knife. Everybody also knows that the smarter, more high probability play is to wait for the market to confirm a change in trend by putting in a high low and breaking the 1st higher high between the low and the higher low - catching the bouncing ball.

The reality is backing this company at this point is akin to catching that falling knife. The ASX graveyard is littered with examples just like this one and if you've followed any of those stories then you'd say this exhibits many of the attributes of those failed stories.

By all means if you want to back them - against the kind of odds I've described above - then by all means I am not trying to stop anyone from doing so, and good luck if they actually make it work because you've taken the risk. But imo - and I'm totally allowed to say so - I think that's an unnecessarily high risk play when there are plenty of better choices to put money into. I don't mind taking a risk, but I'll always wait for that higher low to confirm the market bottom is in.

Cheers, Sharks.