4C Report - December Half Year 1/4 ly, page-6

Greg

I follow the way you have sliced the 73.8%. and used the $4,566,666,666 estimated Case Investment levered off IMF-Bentham's rough estimate of Case Investment Portfolio to Litigation Contracts in Progress @ their given 15%

I am aware of IMF-Bentham quote that as a metric. But am not sure where or how they derive that.

My own analysis based on the Maximum Case Investment Portfolio derived from the quarterly estimates per annum, fall way short.

I use the Maximum Case Investment Portfolio which is invariably the largest size of their expected Case Investment Portfolio, right at the outset of the new year. This could well be a frayed estimate, as some cases will be delayed into later years, as the year progresses, but then again, a few quick settlements & arbitrations could slip in below that radar too.

Comme ci, comme sa? I so expect.

It is their best estimate, so I go with it. I do hope their auditors scrutinise the Case Investment Portfolio composition, but I doubt the Case Investment falls within the normal auditing scope of their review.

So it serves as a valuable guide.

Refer to my table, comparing the Case Investment Portfolio as compared to the LCIP - Judgements & Settlements, which points a 10.1% Percentage, with unwieldy volatility within the range.

Once gain I caution - there is virtually NO offshore LCIP case settlement at this stage, so a projection in 2017, 2018 & beyond is based on Australian history.