Wyckoff trading method, page-1427

G'day @Gullwing,

I can see why you have marked your chart as you have, and yes, it is always a good thing to think of potential scenarios whicj may occur, and how you might take advantage of them if correct. Just don't fall into the trap of expecting the chart to conform to what you want to see happen....let the chart suggest to you what is going on.
Yes, that does look like an accumulation zone, and mark up, followed by an initial supply bar and distribution zone, and it may be.
It won't be known for sure until you can see the result in hindsight.

It should be noted that price has not looked like breaking down in response to the widespread upbar that closed poorly, and if anything price has been grinding higher since, which makes me wonder if something else is actually going on......
Sometimes in an uptrend, a bars develops which looks like a very negative bar, but there is no response or follow through to it.
When this happens, it needs to be considered that these bars may not actually be distribution bars at all, sometimes they are 'absorption bars' (although in this case there is not any trading above to absorb, so that probably isn't quite likely), and sometimes it is just some over enthusiasm in the market, before common sense takes over (which seems more likely in this case).

On the daily chart, the price action is a little confusing to explain, but the weekly is quite clear so far.

First you have the widespread high volume upbar, which closes poorly.....I have marked the lows of that bar with a horizontal line as a level to watch for downside follow through (which would help to confirm the potential weakness within this bar).

Now the next bar is UP, which seems a little strange, if that prior bar was full of selling pressure.
The next bar initially attempted to move higher, but that wasn't supported, and price pulled back, but on low volume (so no serious selling pressure)
The next bar looks to be a mini shakeout, which drew out some increased volume, which was tested the next week, and volume was very low.
The next bar was up in response to the shakeout and test, albeit only marginally, and so the next bar was an absorption or test type bar.
Then price kept grinding higher in response, with an absorption bar, a test bar, and last week another bar which appears to have drawn out some supply, but close as an up bar all the same.

So until price really looks like breaking down, or actually does so, I consider this may be a consolidation of previous gains.......and a grinding response to them.


Weekly Chart


cheers