ESR 6.67% 1.6¢ estrella resources limited

Significant re-rating on the horizon, page-17

  1. 11,185 Posts.
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    Its not all about the size and grade of the resource. The depth is important as the economic value of a tonne of ore in the ground will depend heavily on how much stripping needs to be done before the first tonne of ore is mined. Because funders won't be able to predict the long term demand or prices of Li with any certainty only a few large projects will be funded. The shallower the ore, the earlier the cash flow and pay back time on the CapEx invested, the more likely it will be funded. This is not an infinite pool of demand. Li will work just like any other commodity. There will be winners and losers. Highest grade, lowest cost and a mine plan that maximises NPV are usually winning ingredients.

    Let's see how the boxes get ticked off.

    Li2O grade of cores first.

    Metallurgy of resulting resource second.

    Depth of resulting resource third.

    Size of resulting resource fourth.

    Size doesn't mater all that much. PLS are aiming to process 2Mt/annum over 36 years (with an option for 4Mt/annum over 19 years).

    A modest initial shallow resource of high grade spodumene of 20Mt is more than enough for a 10 year LOM. Whether the mine life is 10 years or 36 years is frankly immaterial if you are producing concentrate in the same quantity and with the same purity. No one knows what happens to demand/price after 10 years let alone 5 years. 20Mt is plenty enough to start with and take advantage of the current high prices and make the company a lot of money. This lithium game is a moving feast and the people with the highest grade and shallowest resources will win IMO. You've only got to be big enough to be feasible to win in this race. Size can actually work against you as it's a harder job to prove feasibility and gain funding. Esh
 
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