Undervaluation, page-25

First 25 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
ggwill

416 Posts.

64

20/01/17

15:00

Post #: 22033187
Share

Originally posted by cncventure ↑

Why do they need to produce 30k to 35k in the June quarter?

They did 21k in Q1, they say they've done 17k in Q2, so with the low end of their guidance being 85k they would need to do 47k in the next two quarters to meet guidance...

They seemed to be originally expecting 30k+ for the final two quarters (which has now been pushed back a quarter). So I don't think 20k to 25k in Q3 and a 25k to 30k Q4 is a stretch.

And of course if they do managed to do 30k+ in Q4 I'd be surprised if the share price wasn't pushing for a new 12 month high soon there after (assuming gold is north of $1200).

That said, even with the shaft completed I'm not expecting 150k next year.

I think 130k to 140k with a $850 to $950 AISC is a more realistic expectation.

I think almost everything would need to go right in all four quarters next year to do 150k and I'm expecting the service shaft probably won't be completed in July, I'll be amazed and excited if it is, but I'll be content if it's done by September.

Even at those lower expectations with gold at $1200 it's wildly FCF+ with exploration upside.

Only a few months away now.

Expand

I also understand why the shares are oversold. Four years ago the company said the production would be 400,000 ounces for this year. The market overreacts to bad news, which may create buying opportunities for some. Hopefully this is the case now.

MML Price at posting: 43.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

MIN

MinRes's Ellison knows he screwed up – for that reason, hunt for new Chair to be sped up

PYC

Scientific conference spotlights PYC's work on blindness disease treatment

HotCopper Highlights: Your most watched stocks for Week 47, 2024

SIG

Dale Gillham's weekly wrap: Sigma-Chemist Warehouse merger creates pharma powerhouse

GRL

To make modern missiles, you need 3D Printing. And in that gold rush, Amaero is selling shovels

Week 47 Wrap: HotCopper users' most watched; Brent lifts on Putin's scary letter; RFK dents CSL

BTH

Bigtincan's Board backs Investcorp offer: Why a NASDAQ listing could be game-changing

WC8

Pan Asia rebranding to 'clear confusion' after bagging $35M for Chile projects

LPE

Sales growth pushes Lovisa's fortunes (and shares) upwards

DUI

Panic, paranoia, and gangland politics: HotCopper users react to Dubber's missing $26M

There are more pages in this discussion • 11 more messages in this thread...

First 25 Last

Add MML (ASX) to my watchlist

Undervaluation, page-25

Top Stories

MinRes's Ellison knows he screwed up – for that reason, hunt for new Chair to be sped up

Scientific conference spotlights PYC's work on blindness disease treatment

HotCopper Highlights: Your most watched stocks for Week 47, 2024

Dale Gillham's weekly wrap: Sigma-Chemist Warehouse merger creates pharma powerhouse

To make modern missiles, you need 3D Printing. And in that gold rush, Amaero is selling shovels

Week 47 Wrap: HotCopper users' most watched; Brent lifts on Putin's scary letter; RFK dents CSL

Bigtincan's Board backs Investcorp offer: Why a NASDAQ listing could be game-changing

Pan Asia rebranding to 'clear confusion' after bagging $35M for Chile projects

Sales growth pushes Lovisa's fortunes (and shares) upwards

Panic, paranoia, and gangland politics: HotCopper users react to Dubber's missing $26M