I understand tight oil is the correct term not shale. The analysts use this term and I think to people in the industry it just shows they don't know what's going on.
I agree with your assessment but I am not looking for a good outlook to buy. I would suggest you shouldn't either.
All I need is confirmation that MRM can slash flesh and bone enough to survive at this level of activity.
We are not talking about efficiencies, it's like the industry has cut off an arm and a leg.
As I say a few thorns are O.K. but nothing actually dangerous. I don't mind being a sissy around these sort of situations.
If it can tread water and you are prepared to wait 2 or 3 years then to me it becomes a buy because it will have an extraordinary amount of leverage to rising oil prices once the tight oil is tapped out.
I think that will be sooner than many people expect, if global oil demand continues to grow at 1.5m bpd per annum and oil remains below $60 U.S per barrel. At that price only about 1.2m bpd of production vs global oil demand of 96m bpd is actually profitable (specifically the Permian basin in the U.S). The Saudi's are cheaper but the Saudi Prince overhead makes them more expensive - which explains their recent actions. Based on those production figures the tail is really wagging the dog here right?
It's a fools game trying to predict oil prices, I have learned that lesson by being the fool. Luckily because I buy things really cheap it didn't cost me anything.
I am still sure that it will change at some point and the bigger the illusion, the greater the consequence when it is shattered.
MRM Price at posting:
27.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held