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pygmyhipppo

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02/12/16

22:08

Post #: 21075083
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Originally posted by Dentie ↑

Trying to join the dots after events of the last couple of days, analyst reports, Sophie's departure etc and here's my personal take on things...
- I reckon the offtakes have been done by now - Pangea
- Financing details currently being finalised - Pangea
- Once all in place, both will be announced together (driven by confidentiality type clause)
- Following very closely behind, Tremont will finally show their hand by making a take over offer (although it won't surprise me if it happened prior to the announcement!!)
- Why else would Tremont vote against the 10% placement facility?
- This is probably why Sam replaced Sophie (to assist preparation of the above)
- I reckon this is why the share price has been consistently "not allowed" to get out of hand. Remember part of an independent valuer's consideration is "what has been the average share price over the 6 preceding months of a takeover offer?"
- I reckon the discount to the NPV is too high at 12%, considering CXX have amended their own one down from 10% to 8% - reflecting the reduced risk
- Everything considered, I will be very surprised if Tremont haven't made their move well before the end of Q1 2017

I think it is very evident to most, if not all holders, that the Panda Hill project is world class and it promises exceptional returns. Personally I would be disappointed with a takeover, but it is what it is.

Given the above, I also think it is extremely important for the Board to make sure they act in the best interests of ALL shareholders when considering any takeover offers and giving their recommendations to holders. It is very unfortunate that I didn't get the opportunity to say that to the Board personally on Wednesday. Disappointment is an understatement.

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Great post, Dentie.

We'll see how a potential takeover and valuation goes. It seems to me that the principle of judging a company's value from the share price of the preceding months may be adequate for an operating business, but is singularly unsuited to an explorer on the cusp of becoming a developer/producer.
A bit like guessing the colour of the butterfly by tasting the faeces of the caterpillar.

CXX Price at posting: 26.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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Offtakes etc..., page-6

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