CLH 0.00% 22.0¢ collection house limited

Motley Fool's Mike King on CLH, page-35

  1. 1,486 Posts.
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    @Madtrader, I don't understand your post where you calculate a 45% "interest rate". Wouldn't the standard business analysis be instead to analyze those same cash flows you post by using a standard business discount rate (say 12%) and then comparing the value of the debt purchase against the current value of the sum of the discounted cash flows to determine a return on investment against the original outlay for the debt? Doing things as you are doing them - by calculating inferred "interest rates" - makes things 300% more difficult and I don't see how it clarifies any issue of profitability.

    Speaking of the above, if you take the purchases made by PNC, CLH, and CCP three and four years ago, and do exactly the analysis I propose above, what is their return on investment? I suspect that for at least one of those companies, they aren't supplying enough information for the calculation to be made.

    I don't think people understand well that the income statement for companies like these means very little. If the company is willing to pay $50M to buy new debts, and it obtains from that in year one $5M of additional revenue that does not require extra staff or expense to process, that's $5M straight to the earnings line. But the cash cost for that $5M was enormously negative, and there is every reason to believe that a lousy $5M first-year recovery on $50M of debt purchases probably isn't going to end up being profitable, let alone being impressive once you discount the cash flows at 12%.

    None of this is saying that any of these companies is a bad investment. It is suggesting that people here should be extremely fixated on analyzing discounted cash returns against original debt purchases, much more than they should care about earnings or earnings growth.
    Last edited by persistentone: 02/12/16
 
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