Fundamentals haven't changed, page-245

The point I am making is that Corporate America with the help of QE123 bought needed time to have cheap money restoring a lof of the damage done by irresponsible lending practices culminating in the biggest meltdown of debt derivative products. We live in a very inter-dependent capital flow environment with the introduction of technology allowing a big in numbers and not necessary $ size of retail traders able to move from markets to markets day or night round the clock beside the Sat/Sunday. Add to this HFT whether operating in local or int markets ranging from FX/commodities to Bonds.

The days of inefficiency of price quoted between 2 markets are long gone utilising technology to close up that inefficiency. Price reaction is virtually immediate to any event whether scheduled of breaking. This is the real of the trading software.

I am aware of all the reasons you are detailing to form a big picture of the political and economic risks we are facing. Being objective, there s a reason why the SP500/DJ30 went on a rampage since 2009 and there were times it "looked" with the news at the time to be collapsing but as the say, a bull market is never easily shaken. It is obvious on the charts that despite all the risks associated with corporate America including, their Central Bank and sovereign debt piling up that it was due for a crash. That is the logical sentiments amongst the risk averse investors and that is a very good and cautious awareness to be in. What is destructive is to then look at everything through this prism of doom and gloom when there isn't the 'real' evidence. Falling gold price on the longer term, rising USDX, rising stockmarkets, zero to negative bond yields.

Aleppo is not even important to crude oil price and definitely ignored with any safe haven buying. We can all see where logics dictate but it is not happening in the real world. Either my analysis is wrong or the world is in not such a worse case scenario. I tend to agree with the latter.

Throw in the Trump factor and we now have a changed in fundamental dynamics. Markets are front running his ability to "Make America great again" and I am not going to get in the way of that momentum and try to be another Michael Barry. I don't believe anymore history repeats itself in a clockwork simplistic way especially the QE experimental factor.

I don't know why everyone is asking me on forums where I am looking at. I don't even attempt to offer and special abilities to pick sectors to start making everyone rich.

BTW, investing isn't necessary about the buy and hold attitude and a stubborn view. Conditions and events changes over time, some type of proactivity in managing the investments is usually the prudent thing to do unless the attitude is that one knows where price is going. If this is the case there ins't a need to monitor events and a quarterly or year review of price suffice.

Ed Sekyota famously said,

1. “Fundamentalists figure things out and anticipate change. Trend followers join the trend of the moment. Fundamentalists try to solve their feelings. Trend followers join their feelings and observe them evolve and dis-solve.
2. “It can be very expensive to try to convince the markets you are right.
3. “The elements of good trading are: 1, cutting losses. 2, cutting losses. And 3, cutting losses. If you can follow these three rules, you may have a chance.”

This from Mark douglas from memory,

"Be long when you are bullish, never be bullish when you are long"

I leave you and any other reader to ponder over not what I have written but other very successful individuals have advised.