About new Moly offer from today

In a few things are still interesting from the Moly offer of today.


Apparently from it's about 65 million cash, only a maximum of 42 million for the purchase of 100% of Gulf can be spended. (No further cash support from the mother?)

"Participation in the cash only option is payable by Moly under the Increased Offer not exceeding $ 42M ( 'Cash Pool')."

The reason could be that you still have the credit with the mother (14 mio) or they need money for the equity at the CAPEX.

The offer is therefore not at 63c (witch will cost 55 mio.), For the majority (80.5% of Gulf shareholders) it's 46c (so under Metros 50c + 1 share or 60c offer)

About the additionally 1,14 moly shares:

"Moly's valuation is as follows: Based on a Moly Share of a $ 0.15, being (audited) Net asset per share (diluted) as at 30 June 2016."

This can be done by a normal company, but here we have a company of which is exposed (closing price 6.9c), has a "mafia management" and is controlled by a 53% Chinese mother and the management has no idea of bauxite or operational mining operation.

So you can not rate Moly shares with 15c.

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Conclusion:

The metro offer is better and cleaner.

The 200 million synergies about the mine life exist only at Metro.

If the Gulf management were fair, they would consider the new Moly offer as still understated and go with Metro.

If one is greedy and unfair, one says just Moly's offer is superior and tries thereby to drive Metro to a further increase of its offer.

We will see the next days how Gulf Management responds.

I have so my foreboding.

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Sell Moly the 39.3% Metro stake makes for Metro no sense, since you would only get 46c (although you yourself 60c offers) and with the 1.14 Molyshares per share provides for Metro no special value there.