The market has savagely under-reacted - but this makes sense as there is always a chance this could quickly blow over. But if it doesn't, and I doubt it will quickly, I think we are looking at an UNPAT of about $180 to 260m ish going forward for a while (say FY 18 and 19) - midpoint of about 30 cps. I'm basing this on EBITDA down 20% due to VIP impacts and the impact of lack of Mainland Chinese VIPs on the other segments (which has far more impact on earnings than the actual VIP segment IMO). Book value is about $7. Maybe a $7 SP (forecast PE 18 of 23x) makes sense if nothing is expected to change medium term. But if the situation is expected to stay the same longer term, then the SP will fall due to Barangaroo being an earnings whirlpool for a start. Then we might be talking $3 or so. All IMO. Its a gamble.
CWN Price at posting:
$10.40 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Held
