If la nina hits and we have a season lick this one i will be a very happy person
The world currently have record wheat stocks however its a bit deceptive when you look into it. Almost half of it is in china who will never export any. Take china out of the equation and wheat to consumption ratio (excluding china) are the lowest since 2012. Ie we have the lowest wheat stocks in almost 5 years. Add to this the usda have increased its forecast world wheat exports 5 times since may, by already over 10 million tonnes with further increases expected. It has also increased the worlds expected consumption by 23million tons, almost Australia’s production(we probably looking at 26-27m tonnes in oz this year). Also as mentioned because of such a depressed wheat price fewer acres/hectares are being planted with usa planting there smallest winter wheat crop in over 100 years. I too know myself at current wheat prices we too will be cutting back our hectares by a fair bit next year (around a 1/3rd) as the risk v reward just ain't worth it.
So with higher world consumption and exports, lower world wheat stocks then they are letting on (excluding china), fewer acres planted, I think the bottom is in and cant see wheat falling back below 400cents in the short - medium term. Any short covering and/or production issues will help wheat futures but cant see it breaching 500 within the next 12 months. Imo will bounce between 400-450 in the next 12 months.
