I think Financial Accounts can be extremely misleading on the face of them. I like to dig a bit deeper, and I believe the underlying EBITDA of a business is key. Take out all the accounting mumbo jumbo and get to the core of the business performance.
I think also, that the net addition to Reserves by NST over the past few years is not well understood, nor properly factored into the performance of this company, which as we know has received many accolades for its performance. I have been buying of late. Here's why.
The underlying EBITDA/share for 2015 was, by my calculations 51.3c/share. If you then add the net growth in reserve ounces of 37.5c/share (calculated at a margin of $750A/oz), you end up at EBITDA/share for 2014/15 of 88.8c.
The same calculation for 2015/16 works out at underlying EBITDA of 66.2c + 62.5c for the net additions to Reserve ounces, giving a very interesting $1.28/share. Remember also that they have not included quite a number of the discoveries, as yet, into the updated Resource and Reserve numbers.
Now you may argue that this net discovery caper is unsustainable, but that is not my reading on what NST are capable of and the prospectivity of their tenements.
So in my book, that level of underlying EBITDA/share warrants a far higher share price than what we saw on Friday. It's up for debate. But I actually think we are at least half what it should be.
It will be very interesting to see the first quarter numbers, where the $A POG has been a lot higher than the average for 15/16.
As above, this company is produced pre tax cash and asset (net) growth of something like $14.75m/week in 15/16. Tax is also an interesting thing to look at. This company is paying a pretty low level of tax (but all very legal and is just a function of the nature of the business/acquisitions etc), and I say well done. Only about $1.36m/week in 15/16, which is a rate of about 9.2%. They are doing great things for the country (employment, growth etc), so a low tax rate is a small part of this equation.
I expect the $1.28/share underlying performance ( hereinafter referred to as the PFN- The Pokerface Number (lol)) will be bettered in 2016/17. POG is up, Plutonic is out, and those 23 drilling rigs are going gang busters.
GLTA.
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Last
$15.90 |
Change
-0.230(1.43%) |
Mkt cap ! $18.16B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$16.23 | $16.23 | $15.89 | $28.19M | 1.757M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
21 | 9551 | $15.89 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$15.90 | 1600 | 10 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 45378 | 9.020 |
6 | 72217 | 9.010 |
4 | 47094 | 9.000 |
7 | 65586 | 8.990 |
8 | 105898 | 8.980 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
9.040 | 46480 | 7 |
9.050 | 128028 | 11 |
9.060 | 115189 | 10 |
9.070 | 48533 | 4 |
9.080 | 64340 | 6 |
Last trade - 12.40pm 04/12/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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