Thats the way to approach this stock Orion it's a punt but with considerably better odds than Lotto. There is a lot of paralysis through analysis with these penny stocks which is largely pointless as the future of this Company lies with the results of these three wells and subsequent wells plus the future oil price, all of which are unknown.
Good results and we have something to work with , poor results and we are probably toast, so punt accordingly and as you say we have three key ingredients , known oil in two of the three wells completed , no debt and 100% ownership of Pathfinder.
What's gone on before is largely irrelevant as we are effectively starting from scratch here , with 3 wells funded and close to production, if they produce , possibly one more plus extra 3D IMO from the current raise.
If these three wells alone can average 80 Bbls a day over the first year net to AKK ( IPO average around 120Bbl's net to AKK) at current oil prices then we should still be around next year with a future but will need continuous follow up wells.
IPO's averaging Less than that then its going to be a struggle IMO. Like all these type of plays with high decline wells its a production line and momentum has to continue to keep ahead of the curve , this next 12 months will tell all...
Cheees Whisky
