ck, page-6

"Was about to dive in on ccl today, but just hesitated now I regret not doing it."

The one other thing to bear in mind is that CCL issues a 'Trading Update / Full Year profit guidance' around this time of year. It cant be more than a few days away.

Depending on how much uncertainty you can stomach, you may choose to buy before or after the update (or both before and after).

CCL hit its lows of $6.00 after the half year result (which was flat vis a vis pcp). I expect that to prove the low point. (Interestingly, for a company this size, it can be quite illiquid. The Coca-Cola Co own 32% of the shares and as you know 3 US institutions recently bought 5% plus stakes. I also know that the likes of AUI, MLT have bought initial positions in CCL. Therefore, when the selling starts, it can really overshoot, and vice versa with buying).

The company explained that the reasons were :

1) a $70-$80 mill adverse effect on COGS due to commodity price increases.Since that time Sugar has fallen from $15/lb to $12, price of oil is down (and hence PET prices), but Aluminum went the other way ($2,500/MT to $2,700). Therefore the worst of the COGS headwind is behind them, and they also suggested that they were able to partially pass on costs to customers.

2) losses in Indonesia (hyperinflation etc), but things have improved there and Indonesia will return to profit in the 2nd half

3) The Korean economy, but things are looking better there, and the company have restructure there, with all the redundancy costs already recognised.

Add to that the bedding down and full year contribution from recent acquisitions (SPC, Coffee, Water) and the supply chain improvements from their automated DC's and I expect that they have started the return to normal profitability.

Anyway, thats how I read the situation.