I don't short oil stks per say as it is impossible to forecast the price of crude. $30 - 130 during the next 24 months is my best guess. BHP has fallen so much that I'm reluctant to consider shorting it. RIO is IO and Cu and i am bearish re both. ButRIO has best IO grade and highly efficient. My pick to short in this sector is FMG. It has lower grade and gets 10-15% less/ton, has high moisture content costing it another 3-4%, has plenty overburden before reaching the IO etc. Plus FMG has had a very good run recently. its still cum a 12c div so bear that in mind. But if IOP tanks and i feel its a 60% probability by Christmas then FMG SP will take a hammering.
But for me the best short on ASX remains WOR. I'll explain my rationale on a new thread and show why i feel M.Star's new IV this morning of $4.00 is still too high for a firm trapped in a collapsing macro.
Ann: Preliminary Final Report-WOR.AX, page-20
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Last
$13.86 |
Change
-0.120(0.86%) |
Mkt cap ! $7.649B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $14.11 | $14.16 | $13.86 | $12.08M | 868.4K |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 13996 | $13.86 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $13.87 | 2900 | 1 |
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| Last trade - 16.10pm 27/11/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
| WOR (ASX) Chart |
