Fundamental Financial Analysis, page-26

Cmon
Not only is that assumption that every well will produce a joke but that every well will produce at a given rate as well. ( average well above reality ) What is interesting is the capital requirements to drill the 116 wells at 650k usd - 73 USD not to mention the corporate costs over 10 years which they say will have to increase to drill that number of wells.
Yet people can't analyse these numbers and see they are been sucked in again with ridiculous assumptions . I mean 116 wells with 100% success rate . An average IP if 85 or 100 when history suggests a quarter . To me it looks like the success rate of the first 3 wells will be 33% .
Not sure what the figures are but imagine the productive success of shale wells may be 60-70%
Assume that and you also assume 20-25M of drilling expenses are wasted and you are in deep trouble trying to show you have a viable business