Your comment: "To address the 1 area where (IMO) you've strayed but have acknowledged it could go either way is the macro oil environment. I truly think the macro oil environment per se has little effect on AKK share price because AKK produces so little hydrocarbons of any kind."
If AKK are not in the hydrocarbon business what business do you suggest they are in? digging random holes business? And if so how do they profit from this?
Your comment: "Also, JIMO, I believe you are reading the macro oil environment incorrectly - the short term (say next 6 months or so) appears -ve with longer term positives occurring 2017. This of course has much larger effect on the large producer companies and the are large variances in their fundamentals."
Macro oil could go either way - in the next 6 months if OPEC keep pumping out oil and ignoring the continual glut then yep it's going down again until they learn their lesson. Additionally, there will be a massive shorting of oil which will push brent crude and WTI down along with it - to the $30 area. However, if OPEC countries choose to use the intelligent side of their brain they will put something in place in September during informal talks to quell the glut. This won't likely be a 'freeze' but if they can reduce barrels produced it can greatly bolster a more reasonable price. I think OPEC is well aware of the massive shorting which is building up again (overall short covering is going down again) and they responded with a slight announcement. Whether the OPEC response was a little flippant which people are not buying anymore I think OPEC at least acknowledges what could happen to their oil price if the shorting continues. The question remains - how many times does OPEC countries want to shoot themselves in the foot? Perhaps a big drop in oil before the September meeting is what is needed to make OPEC countries wake up and make an oil policy decision to slow production.
Therefore, the ball is in the court of OPEC and macro oil prices IMO could go either way. Higher oil price will assist AKK as can be read in AKK's latest projection of oil price and profit.
Your comment: "Bollinger Bands (BB): This I am familiar with, being it is just a SMA with (generally) upper and lower bands set at 2 standard deviations (SD). Not that stock prices are a normal distribution but 2 SDs from the mean value covers 95% of values. Also familiar that are a volatility indicator and useful for detecting double tops (M) and double bottoms (W).
I see your BB are at the 20 SMA with 2 SDs.
a) Would the complete lack of volume be a concern as to the signaling ability of the BB - since for a breakout to occur the price will have to cross the 20 SMA first (so needs to get above 0.7) and then go above the high band at 0.8?
b)Would a trade a 0.5 (i.e. outside of the lower BB) signal breakdown?"
My thoughts: You are correct - a push through the lower deviation line would signal oversold and a lowing of price - which wont happen because I cannot see it going lower that 0.6c in the first place. However, the line could crawl along (near) the lower deviation area with lack of interest/ volume.
Your part B - yes it would represent a breakdown but it would also be representing over sold so it would only be temporary. (and imo unlikely).
Your question: "MACD: Also a passing familiarity given its relationship with MAs. Classic "signalling" indicator right?
a) same comment wrt to volume - is that a problem?
b) I probably have this backwards but, if you were in AKK already (so long the stock at the LHS of your graph), the clearest "signal" I see is the exit signal mid June. Was the confirmed also by the RS moving to -ve territory? The other couple of signals look "mild" to me. Note I'm just looking at the signal not the order queue (which may or may not be real??)"
My thoughts - (re: B) - Yes you are correct - No strong signal has yet occur that screams buy which has occurred above the zero. I stated last week that people can choose to wait until the signal screams buy or they can get in now at a cheaper price. I got in last week (early) at 0.6 because my analysis says the technical's will firm up due to other elements that will positively affect AKK. You can choose to wait a little longer but the whole 0.7 amount only represents 70k - so any trader alone could wipe this amount in one go - and then you will be entering at 0.8c.
Technicals are generally effected by wider things and don't usually create movements in their own right (think feedback loop or self fulfilling prophecy. I.e overall equity sentiment, fundamentals, positive news etc effect technicals. So, if you think there are a lot of wider elements that are coming up for AKK that will inevitably effect the technical's and therefore SP perhaps you don't need to solely enter when the MACD tells you to.
The point I will make here is that do not use technical's alone, don't use FA alone, don't use positive news announcement analysis alone or for that matter any indicator independent of others - as they are all reliant upon each other. That is why I never talk about TA alone and independent to other analysis tools or elements. An individual entering AKK on a fundamental reason or a news announcement reason will effect technicals.
Your comment: "The other comment I would make applies to your comment wrt "good investor behavior on the sell side can greatly assist a SP's strong trend upwards. Don't get bluffed out and sell". Would you really need that kind of emotive cooperation for TA to work for this stock? I understand what you mean by the line wipe at 0.7 and the possible emotional changes occurring."
Your question brings up a wider question: "Does the human walk the dog or does the dog walk the human?"
I say this because you don't usually find a purely technical breakout with no other elements screaming buy - i.e. I want to also see building FA, positive news announcement, strong holder sentiment towards their own stock as well as good TA support.
In other words the stronger multiple indicators (TA, FA., news announcement analysis etc) are that are going off the stronger the trend will be and the stronger the positive psychological feedback loop / positive self for filing prophecy will become. This keeps pushing the SP up until that sentiment changes.
Hey I never said the market is rational - I just follow the way it works.
I know FA guys will likely never admit such market irrationality because it goes against their FA ideology - but the crazy reality that is the market is out actual market reality.
AKK Price at posting:
0.7¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
