“For the record, this could...COULD even be a buy zone as 4.7-4.8 or 4.5-4.8 was strong resistance earlier (2015 March and then again when the DFS came out) and I've pointed that out earlier. So this could end being support now. I hope so for you guys but I'll add that SYR is still not my cup of tea and might never be - just too much risk for too little reward, and a huge fall could come at any point. There are plenty of other stocks with good reward for less risk.” - An extract from my quoted comment this morning
Note that again SYR seemed to have moved in line with how I thought it possibly could move, this morning and it has closed in the 4.7-4.8 zone, with some support there. I did mention “could” a number of times though as I’ve always been wary of the huge market cap of SYR itself, which I always thought had a risk of sharp corrections, like we recently saw.
As I’ve mentioned in the past on a number of occasions, 4.72 is the price I always have in mind because that is what SYR was when I started commenting, it took more than a year to cross it and this price is very visible even on SYR’s lifetime chart. I mentioned in the morning how this zone could be some sort of support and I note that at the end of the day, price dipped to 4.74, tried to recover a bit, fell back to 4.73 (very close to 4.72) and then finally settled at 4.77 – exactly in the 4.7 to 4.8 zone.
So till here, there have been no major surprises for me since the movement last month. I would urge all SYR shareholders to have a read of this entire thread and see my warnings last month and let me know if there is somewhere I have wrong. If I have made any mistake, I’m happy to stand corrected and this is a learning process, but I genuinely see no mistake thus far and anyone who ignored those warnings is now down 26% from the time of my comments and around 29% down from the all time high. This is a pretty huge fall considering that this is an ASX 200 company and diluted market cap from time of my comments has gone down around 450 million dollars.
Please note at this stage, it gets far more difficult to analyse what will happen next. On the one hand, I did mention that it could find some support in this zone, and that is exactly what happened today......TODAY.
Nevertheless it is hard to ignore the huge fall from the all time high, fact that SYR closed so close to low, rose again today like many days but dropped off by end of day like many days, fact that many old shareholders would be frustrated at having lost the chance to sell at 6$ in 2014 and again now in 2016 at 6.66, fact that there could be many underwater recent buyers, fact that some more falls could trigger a lot of stops, fact that recent fall has caused some panic, SYR has lost its aura of "safety", SYR's poor risk - reward ratio is clearly visible, etc.
I hope that is very clear now about what I was talking about last month how SYR’s risk-reward ratio, especially at 6.4 was very scary and how it is not really that safe. Sadly, I was mocked despite being very accurate and where has that gotten shareholders who ignored those warnings now, who have lost 30% of their own wealth, along with others.
At this point, I don’t know where it will go next and the market might give more confirmation as time goes by. Important to realize that there could always be some big spikes from time to time, accompanied by even further lows. As I mentioned, this is just not my cup of tea and there are plenty of other safer stocks, but good luck to the bravehearts who find the risk-reward ratio acceptable. Please note that there could also be accumulation at these levels and I won't dismiss that possibility. As I said, it gets more difficult to figure out at these levels.
I think recent high and around that time was a pretty safe time to at least book some profits, and SYR now has to move up a huge amount just to reach that level (it needs to move up by a staggering 40% to reach all time high). This is not hindsight and I thought it was quite clear. I’d once again urge SYR shareholders to have a read of this entire thread.
Good luck going forward.
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was not downramping SYR, but was speaking what was going to happen in any case, and almost every word (actually every word) of what I said since last month continues to come true with the massive fall since, and even the recent support zone. I’ve personally found these graphite wars quite childish and have never participated but regrettably some still believe that I’m the big bad polarbear out to get SYR.
(20min delay)
