Not to be rude, but saying value of plant 'argument' is irrelevant and that you should price a plant based on the price paid historically is contrary to your own argument.
So scrap price is ~$10 million but given the POG, the abundance of late stage explorers in the immediate vicinity and that it is will cost next to nothing to restart the plant, a sound valuation approach would be a lot closer to replacement value versus scrap or price paid. After all that is the choice nearby explorers wishing to move to production will need to make .
Hence as your note states something is worth what someone is prepared to pay and given the clear advantage speed to market wise for an explorer to buy versus build (along with the conditions above i.e. abundance of explorers in immediate vicinity), I suspect that is a lot closer to the plants replacement cost rather than scrap or a distressed price from a few years back.
8's
P.S.You said:
"The old real estate rule...something is only worth what someone is prepared to pay NOT its replacement cost."
I thought the real estate rule in this country (for resi anyway) was pay the max multiple of income that a bank is willing lend you.
MKO Price at posting:
6.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held