MML 2.41% 85.0¢ medusa mining limited

Knowing When To Hold Em or Fold Em, page-7

  1. 812 Posts.
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    Yes I'm quite fortunate to have made a nice profit on MML (average buy high 50s, average sell high 70s), though not as much as I was expecting and more annoyingly a significantly amount of those purchases where when MML was in the 30s and 40s recently, which means I won't receive a 50% capital gain discount for holding longer than 12 months (which I was confident that I'd be able to do with the MML turnaround looking like it would play out well for 18 months)

    In the end I had to sell six figures worth of MML stock between July 7 and July 15 (the reason I've been a bit quiet on these forums).

    As for why so much? Well the potential for the government closing the mine just wasn't factored into my calculations and I saw the B1 deposit as giving MML a great deal of optionality on the gold price.

    However with Lopez's stance against open pit mining I now feel that the B1 deposit is closer to being a complete write off (rather than a cheap call option on the gold price) and I've now backed it out of my MML value calculations, which makes MML's valuation less of a standout against other gold mining stocks but with a much higher risk of being closed.

    I'm keeping 10% of my position out of respect of the value that its offered 6 weeks ago and so I have some skin in the game to incentivize me to keep an eye on it should the situation change for the better.

    If MML gets through the review process, the government simmers down on mine closures and operations continue to improve as planned I will look at increasing my position, but not before.
 
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