I am trying to work out my valuation of ASB based on a complete closure of the US operations. I think this is almost a certainty after 2020. Too much political pressure and Alabama being a Republican State, it is going to suffer big time post election.
Profit will need to come from:
PPB - maybe $1.5 mill p.a.
OPV - maybe $15 mill a year
Ferries - perhaps $5 mill p.a.
Support - big variance in outcomes possible here but at a guess $5 mill p.a.
NPAT - $26.5 mill x PE 12 = roughly $320 million.
So in short, needs a few wins in the systems side of the business. This is quite likely but not certain (as I think someone is very anti-Austal in the Pentagon) so I think ASB is still a hold but tough to find huge upside.
Also, at least a 12 month wait for any (unlikely) change in the fortunes of the US operations.
Ann: LCS Completes Full Ship Shock Trials-ASB.AX, page-5
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$3.16 |
Change
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Mkt cap ! $1.072B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $3.24 | $3.24 | $3.14 | $2.334M | 733.5K |
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| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6465 | $3.15 |
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| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $3.17 | 11605 | 4 |
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