Oil Search Valuation & Target Price, page-498

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sircorp

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13/06/16

14:57

Post #: 18020404
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Originally posted by sircorp ↑

In Long Term, Interoil Take Over is a Excellent for Oil Search Share Holders(If ELK & Antelope resource are above 6.2 tcf). However, in Short to Medium Term, it will dilute Oil Search EPS from 15% to 20%. Here is my assessment(I could be wrong)
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1) Interoil was not able to pay even for drilling for Resource Appraisal. They were looking to sell assets from long time, and Debt is around, US$250 Million plus, without any income what so ever. Two years back Inter Oil Sold Assets(Resources) to TotalSA that source of income has now dried up.
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2) As per my understanding(I am not an expert) Inter Oil Debt of US$250 Million will be transferred to Oil Search(as part of 100% takeover agreement). $2.2 Billion Taker Over Price with US$250 Million Debt
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3) TotalSA will pay US$1.2 Billion to Oil Search($141 Million + US$250 Million Later for selling 60% of Interoil Back to TotalSA. My understanding 141 Million will go to UBS & others who are managing the takeover process), out of 1.20 Billion, US$250 Million will go in Inter Oil Debt Repayment, plus some money for Retrenchment/Employee benefit Employee Payment. Only US$770 Million will be used for Buy Back of Shares.
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4) CVR will go directly to Inter Oil Share Holders. CVR is attached to Inter Oil Shares not Oil Search.
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5) If you add up everything, a total of US$1.6 Billion payment from totalSA minus $250 Million Inter Oil Debt & 700 Million for shares buy back, Net Transaction is Positive for Oil Search but that will happen from 1 July 2017 onward.(141 Million plus 250 Million is conditional and paid in July 2017 onwards
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Inter Oil Assets may be great but that will be known once we know Net Resources.
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.. Oil Search Estimate is around 5.9 to 6.2 tcf gas in Elk/Antelope while Inter Oil Estimate is almost double of that. Resource Modelling can have Large Errors too(Consultants/Employee are Loyal to their Pay Cheque Master).
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In Short term, Inter Oil Acquisition will have EPS Dilution.

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Feed Stock Cost in Australia is higher than Japanese LNG Spot Price of US$4.10. Most of Australian and American LNG Producers/Exporters are bleeding financially.
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http://www.meti.go.jp/english/statistics/sho/slng/result/pdf/201605-e.pdf
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https://ycharts.com/indicators/japan_liquefied_natural_gas_import_price

OSH Price at posting: $6.88 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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Oil Search Valuation & Target Price, page-498

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