I’ll admit I've been on all sides of this already.
- No - Must be 2:1 etc.
This is complicated and a lot to take in quickly.
GMM is a complicated beast.
We are like Frankenstein’s monster made from the bits GXY had lying around.
We are a killer but we belong to them. We don’t have our own identity.
Even our boss is ex-Galaxy.
When looked at side-by-side , the attention, the volume, the press, the hype and the deals go to them instead.
We get mentioned along with GXY - but they’re cheaper and shinier and have that SDV asset that everyone wants.
Truth is we have been having a hard time lately. The low volume life in the shadows has made it easy to swing trade us.
Sell down and scalp. Anybody with more than 50k of shares could try that on regularly.
But now there are instos with millions.
We are completely manipulated by that buying and selling power as they play for pips.
Nobody holding these shares lately would have been overly optimistic that they would reach and hold their true value quickly. Well I was.... but that doesn't make any difference.
No matter how good we are on paper - we had become the epitome of a good short-term trade.
Look at our forum. We are in the trenches with our helmets on.
Very cautious optimism in the face of sometimes inexplicably disappointing results.
Up North - another share was going gangbusters and nobody noticed how few shares we have.
How we kill everyone in lithium on earnings per share.
The story is too complicated to tell easily.
We are Mr 50% Frankenstein. And most of the time it feels like much less, somehow.
Myself I was looking long - but I was struggling to see how James Bay could come into the picture to give us good growth trajectory quickly.
GXY hold us by their reins, and a few equity payment chains.
If they don’t go to James Bay next, and they are evidently not, then we have to wait. They can simply say NO. SIT.
I invested in GMM because the low dilution and the good deal with GXY.
I was settled in for the long haul.
I also really wanted a GMM that bought into SDV.
Now I realise that was being a bit greedy. They would want their full pound of flesh for that.
Money up front - or it goes to someone else.
Galaxy had already handed over a real feast of assets.
We would have endured massive dilution or missed out, and waited.
SO - now GXY want to disassemble Frankenstein.
We get our rent for the use of the parts and we get to join in on their reformation and their path to one of the Biggest 3 lithium companies in the world.
They want us for that missing piece of SDV financing.
Why? Because its better that SDV doesn’t get another chunk sold off it as well.
Its worth eventual billions in annual profits.
This assistance in reaching 100% ownership of SDV is what will tip GXY into voting for this dilution.
We are the missing millions of SDV bill-paying profits. We are the ticket to the ASX 200.
I would have been happy with 2:1. I think that would have been more pleasing.
but
I’d still be well be in profit with 1.65:1
So would virtually all of us, as our sp was embarassingly tied to GXY’s fortunes like a lap-dog.
I’m guessing quite a lot of us hold GXY as well. I do. I've bet the farm on these 2
The question is now - do we want to have GXY shares ?
and if we do - then do we want GXY to do well after that merge?
The new deal is a compromise. It is the deal that management feel will appease both sides.
GXY gets to double their profits from Mt Cattlin to put to SDV in the short-term and GMM gets some recognition for helping them out without angering GXY-only holders by handing over 2:1.
If you’re not happy with the deal then you can always sell or vote no.
Somebody else will be doing the numbers of how many shares in GXY they will pick up.
If you want to do yourself a favour hold and buy some GXY shares too.
Drive the price of them up and GMM holders will benefit as well.
If you hate GXY for some reason then you invested in the wrong company.
This share will continue to be “owned” by GXY.
Voting yes gives GXY/GMM the important edge in the next battle and we can all watch what SDV does for our new share's price.
And then James Bay. And then the next acquisition. And the next.
or even - an immediate 3rd party take over for the new Galaxy. It becomes very likely once we've tidied house.
Vote no, and we lose SDV and we can sit here and watch GXY's share price eventually go past ours.
We are stuck without them. Watch them go into JV with someone else on SDV, to both our disappointments.
I'm long on GXY's plans to be one of the great Australian corporate success stories of the next few years.
This decision shows some guts from both managements, and the scale of their optimism for the future, together -
so I’m voting yes.
Good luck to everyone and I wish you the best in your own decision making.
