under valued, page-115

sharks
I agree on current spot 26-29 would be a more reasonable trading range with still a discount to underlying value of around 30%. Morningstar have a valuation of 39c and that is closer than 22.5c that is for sure
Although the stock price is up marginally by 2.5 cents the increase in IO has seen value of the business increase by a lot more as it enhances cashflow and increases the implied value of Iron Hill and Koolan Island.
At the current IO price this is what I feel the numbers look like for next quarter cash flow
assumed average price of $62 USD (fines it is now 65 so they would be getting 71 for lump and 61 for fines minus penalties and grade)
Assumed lump premium of $10 USD remains (currently 10.50)
assumed freight rates of $8 USD
assumed all in cash costs of 55 aud
split 55% lump 45% fines
3 dollar penalty for impurities and moisture and purity
overall net sales price USD 58-59 or AUD 75 ( 78c currency)
production/sales profile 600k X $aud 17 )10.2 m net cash flow margin plus 2.5 m in interest - 12.5-13m in cash inflow plus 2 million of provisional pricing from March plus 4m reduction in rail liability - 17m value addition this quarter alone
ofcourse at current IO price one can add 4-5 c for Iron hill and can probably add 4-5 c for KI assets even after an assumed wall rebuild.

so my valuation of MGX currently is around 36c-37c without insurance funds and assuming full closure costs for KI, but in reality KI is on care and maintainance and not only will not close down but will probably break even with qube deal until KI starts again. so one could take this up to 40c

I still am amazed why analysts such as Citi continue to use USD45 as yearly IO price average and 35 for next year.

mid to high 20s not far off IMO