aldi research

Interesting research from Morgan Stanley on ALDIs push into Australia.

Aldi Australia's sales are forecast to rise almost 90 per cent to $15 billion over the next four years - challenging the Woolworths/Coles duopoly - as the discounter opens stores in new states and consumers become more willing to spend more of their grocery dollars at the discount retailer.

Aldi's sales rose 60 per cent to $8 billion between 2013 and 2016, according to broker Morgan Stanley. Sales are expected to reach $15 billion by 2020 as Aldi lifts store numbers from 373 to 628 and as its market penetration (the percentage of grocery shoppers who visit each month) rises from 36.8 per cent nationally to 54.9 per cent.

Aldi's share of the national food and liquor market is expected to rise from around 6 per cent in 2016 to 10 per cent, eclipsing that of Metcash's IGA network and placing more pressure on Woolworths and Coles to cut prices to defend their turf.

"Clearly the headwind for the Australian supermarkets has only just begun," said Morgan Stanley analyst Tom Kierath.
Morgan Stanley's sales forecasts exceed even the most optimistic forecasts of broker UBS, which estimated in 2014 that Aldi's sales could reach at least $9.3 billion by 2019 and as much as $13 billion if the retailer fixed problems such as lengthy checkout queues, out of stock items and the quality of its fresh food.

The new forecasts reflect not only Aldi's rapid store expansion but its growing acceptance amongst Australian grocery shoppers as consumers seek to reduce the cost of their weekly grocery shop.

According to Roy Morgan Single Source figures released last week, 5.3 million Australians visit Aldi stores in a four week period, compared with 10.5 million at Woolworths, 10 million at Coles and just over 4 million at IGA.
Morgan Stanley says Aldi customers are now spending an estimated $100 over a four week period, up 66 per cent from an average spend of $60 in 2007.

"Aldi's prices are about 25 per cent cheaper on like products compared with Coles and Woolworths, so its basket size will never catch Coles or Woolworths. But we do think that it can close the gap to Coles and Woolworths, where customers spend $220 and $258 respectively over a 4-week period," Mr Kierath said.