Made a very rough back of the envelope estimate of PAN's intrinsic value as follows:
- Value of Thunder Bay North JV (guided by what Rio is investing): 7m AUD
- Savannah North (high optionality on Ni price): 8m AUD
- Gum Creek (guided by comparable transactions): 7m AUD
- Panton (guided by comparing with TBN): 4m AUD
- Lanfranchi (optionality on Ni price): 2m AUD
- Cash and cash equivalents: 26m AUD
- Cash from CR: 11m AUD
- Remaining redunduncy costs, cost of shutting down and selling Ni below cost: -6m AUD
- Cost of running the company for a while and contingencies: -7m AUD
Total: 52m AUD
Nbr of shares (after CR): 429 m
Estimated intrinsic value per share: 12.1 cent
Note that my assumptions are slightly conservative.
PAN Price at posting:
11.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
