Hi Shrewd,
thanks very much for sharing your valuable and well articulated insights.
I appreciate your willingness to share your information and thereby add real value to our forum.
My timing re: drawdowns is based on the long history of EWC not being able to meet their own self-imposed deadlines (see eg. 2015 AR (drawdown for lng hub in October, 2015 and power station by end 2015). While I understand that the CP's re: power station loan have been met and that EWC in its Half-yearly report (Dec 2015), foreshadowed drawdown in March 2016 and for the lng hub in April 2016) and that the Sengkang lng loan is to be finalised shortly (ie. April) I allow some 'slippage' in my assumptions (ie. by mid 2016).
As far as my eps calculation re: Sengkang lng trains are concerned, I use EWC's own February, 2007 company overview announcement which states, in part, on page 8 that 0.5mtpa LNG train will yield $75m EBITDA if the price is $6/mmBtu. I understand that, even now, the price to be obtained should not be below $6/mmBtu.
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