As always I like the comments of CPDLC. He does a lot of micro-research on the company which makes sense. But by researching a junior goldmine like MML it is always good to have, next to the micro research, that dott pointed on the horizon some time in the future.
what is happening in the world on a macro scale: unprecedented printing of money out of thin air, interest rates going into negative territory, still lackluster growth in many regions, piling debt levels and central banks running out of ammunition. The QE actions of the FED and ECB have perhaps helped to create some growth, but at what costs? All the people who saved some money (either in the bank or in pension funds) have payed the price. People are getting hurt because they want to have some buffer for the future. Where will this all end?
For me it is obvious that all the debt that have been created in the last decade will not be payed back. There will be some eye caching defaults (Greece will be one of the first if the EU will not give the Greek people a relieve of 50% of their debt) but there will be more. In the US you see o lot of oil companies struggling, also the biggest coalproducent in the US. What about the problems in Brasil, Venezuela etc etc.
The system is not healthy anymore. Negative interest rates, go figure!
What brings this all for the one product MML is producing: Gold. Gold is the only real money in the world for thousands of years. It is a safe instrument to preserve your wealth in unprecedented times like this. Why do you think China and Russia are buying so much gold every single month? I don't give any credit to analysts who are writing that Gold does not pay any dividend or interest and should therefore goes down in times that the Fed is increasing short term interest rates. They do not quite understand the function of Gold. I agree that it is almost undoable to give a projection for the POG in the next months. There are so many people involved in trading Gold. People with many different views. But taking a longer perspective and the macro trends in place it is safe to say that gold will be more dominant in the years to come. It can not be created out of thin air (only perhaps for the paper short positions in gold, but in my opinion that is a tricky game) and more and more people are turning towards (physical) gold for wealth preservation. By the way what I say about gold also stands for silver. In my opinion silver is the "poor mans gold".
I am more than happy that MML is in the gold business. It will certainly not go in one straight line. But if MML can get a really strong management team onboard and when they are able to manage the mine in the right way and when they will her able to lower the AISC towards the 825 - 875 level and with a resilient POG which will eventually go back to a level where it should be regarding the world macro framework, then MML will have a bright future ahead, not withstanding the possibility of some short-term volatility in the SP. Nothing goes in one straight line.
MML Price at posting:
81.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held