Wyckoff trading method, page-587

Marion, you have to make your own investment decisions, not anyone else.

You also need to be aware that, Technical Analysis (charting) primarily deals with the probabilities of something happening.
So I don't ever know 'for sure' what direction price will travel, and where it will end up at a certain point in time.
All I do is watch the price action of certain instruments, and at certain times there is a higher than average probability of something happening, and then make a bet on that probability in response (and even then I'm sometimes wrong).
So I don't know 'all the time' what will happen with price, and even when I think I do...something outside of my control might arise to mess up my analysis.

Anyway all that said, SEK does appear to follow its parent Index the S&P ASX200 (XJO) quite well, and it has been recently acting slightly stronger than the index recently.

After sharply falling out of the previous trading range in June 2015.
Price is now attempting to re-enter the that range again, by absorbing the inevitable supply that will come in at these levels.
It would be normal for price to find some difficulties (from this older previously trapped supply) when coming back to a level like this.

Probabilities......
So, depending on the levels of supply coming in at this level, and how the parent Index (XJO) travels, I would expect the highest probability in the near term is for price to dance around 15.78 line (trading just a little higher or lower). This is the level which marks the lows of the old trading range.
Next, there is some chance price will be overcome by the supply (or the XJO fails, or a little of both) and will retreat back to just below the 15.78 line, and attempt to find support roughly between 14.92 and 15.25, possibly before having another go at cracking the 15.78 level in the future (soon'ish).
Finally, I would suggest that price is less likely to move much higher than the recent highs (roughly 16.20'ish) in the short term (that is not to say IT Won't, just that it is less likely), unless something surprising happens -like the XJO moving sharply higher and carrying SEK along with it.

You should also follow the XJO thread on Hot Copper, as SEK does track the XJO fairly closely (and so will move in concert with it, to some exent), and there are some regular commentaries on that thread which give ongoing insight into the markets, and possible directions.

SEK Daily


cheers