Ann: Half Yearly Report and Accounts, page-8

I don't have many answer for your question but here are a few of my thoughts on some of the points you raise.

Statseeker

I doubt we'll see them employ many new sales staff as they can't afford it as you say.

This is the second US office they have opened, see p14 below. I did read that they employed a west coast rep last year so perhaps he/she was working from home previously.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20141120/pdf/42tvzd202qlgbg.pdf

Interesting list of competitors. The market is huge and Statseeker just needs to win a small piece. As always, a fast growing market attracts lots of competition and based on sales growth to date it appears that Staseeker is currently being left behind (similar to Urgent).

They have grown sales 15% YOY to December 2015 as a result of employing a US based CEO (previously it was difficult to win new business in the US with an Australian based one). I would imagine that AKiPS will be similarly restrained by being located in Australia. 15% growth is plenty if it can be maintained and given they are opening a west coast presence it looks like they think there is further growth available.

Some of the partners are as you say but others are more specialist like Triplecomm.

http://www.triplecomm.co.uk/

Urgent

Urgent had higher revenues in 2014/2015 due to the one-off funding to rebuild emaintenance. Therefore H1 2016 is a re-basing and given it includes significant one-off costs then I expect future profit to be improved even without revenue growth. They earn an upfront fee plus ongoing maintenance and from what I can tell the underlying maintenance fee is steadily growing based on the customers they've signed up over the last few years, particularly in the fuel retail vertical. My suspicion is that new sales have stopped in the last couple of years due to focus on the product rebuild. But now they have a new product that should be much easier to sell.

From memory I think the prior CEO of Urgent left of his own volition.

I don't think that $5m npat in 2017 is realistic. However, even $2.5m npat would be a great result considering the share price. There are plenty of ways that this can be achieved:

1) Continued moderate growth in Statseeker. Whilst revenues only grew 15% in H1, group contribution jumped from $100k to $300k. There are no variable costs so the majority of sales growth falls to the bottom line.

2) An acquisition. They only acquire profitable businesses and their track record isn't bad.

3) Growth in Urgent thanks to the new product.

As stated before, I think that given time the appointment of David Nelson increases the likelihood of them getting one or more of the businesses firing.

If none of this happens then I am left holding a stock paying a 5% dividend trading at <10x EV/NPAT which is hardly a disaster.

One thing that could cause major problems to the thesis is a much stronger AUD.