Packer snaps up another 3% of Crown, page-41

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JoeGambler

1,236 Posts.

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17/12/15

18:17

Post #: 16638379
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Originally posted by sergeant ↑

So, the latest theory to hit the press today is that JP might be thinking of buying (with others) the 34% stake in MPEL that CWN owns. On first blush this looks like a smart move:
1)MPEL as an asset of CWN, is trading at a 30% discount to its value based on the MPEL price. It should be trading at $4.1 bill but is actually reflected in CWN at approx $2.9 bill. The market would value cash in CWN much more than the MPEL, it would seem.
3)Therefore, JP and others would, on the face of it, be buying a very cheap asset off CWN that the market doesnt value properly anyway...much better to take it private, and good buying for JP et al.
2) Buying the 34% stake in MPEL would give CWN the cash it needs to fund Sydney and their portion of Alon without having to go to the market.
3)Result: CWN would rise because, a)they dont own Macau any more and b) CWN wouldnt need to tap the market for further cash.
Nice and tidy....I wonder if this is the play?

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Interesting theory and avoiding a capital raising would be loved by the market. However, as a co-owner of Crown how is selling strategic casino assets on China's doorstep at the bottom of the market a good thing? It is frustrating because for JP it is great - he gets Macau cheap - the largest projected gaming market by far, and Crown gets some cash to avoid his dilution. What about the other 47% of shareholders? Exactly. If they need to, they need to but, it concerns me Packer would be taking Crown's LT strategic edge, ie Chinese culture's huge apetite for gambling, cheap for himself and others IMO.

CWN Price at posting: $11.58 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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