Can never understand why people want to quote fully diluted mc, in light of performance shares that vest on the basis of successful future outcomes that would put the business in a materially different state (and value proposition).
Surely you either have to quote undiluted mc for the present time and present operations; or alternatively, quote fully diluted and then try and apply some reasonable metric (e.g. ev/ebitda) that relates to the performance shares outcomes being realised - i.e. revenue and product growth. Now what's that worth? Well, if the second milestone shares vest, the coy will have some pretty decent market penetration and $5M YoY revenue at some point in the first 3 years of operation. $40M mc, $5M FY revenue and (we assume) reasonable growth prospects. Being a software developer of a fairly simple product, capital costs plus the DA should be reasonably low, so the growing revenue can go straight to bottom line. Not sure what the margins are here but these are all the sorts of scenarios I'd be considering before quoting a fully diluted mc.
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