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1.4¢ argo exploration limited

Substantially Undervalued, O&G Situation in play, page-141

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07/12/15

20:46

Post #: 16564308
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Originally posted by Last of the Mohicans ↑

Hi squidd,

Yes, without doubt they are wanting to cash-out early.

I'm kind of doing it the other way. I'm looking far forward to work out the value that any buyer when running a valuation model will come up with. Once I have that figure on a per well basis, you can then apply a discount to it (ie the return a buyer would find acceptable on there overall investment) and then come to a number.

In the case of VOBM#1 for example, that $11.45M figures comes from 1.8mmboe of total production (0.9mmboe being PANR's share of that production).

So I don't see anyone paying more than $10 per boe in the ground in this case ($9M net per well to PANR) given the price criteria I've used. Obviously if the price of natural gas or oil rises then you might get a bit more. If the EUR per well turns out to be higher than this (& I think it might) you'll get a slightly higher price.

Apply that across West Double A Wells (assuming VOBM#1 is an average well in this field) and PANR could realise around $333M for its share of the field.

Effectively doing it this way, its hard to over value the likely boe in the ground number.

LOTM

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Nice call here LOTM, where is your sell target?

AXT Price at posting: 10.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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