It has been some time since I previously made comments on AZV, but recent events have inspired me.
Mr Astles is a highly capable Chief Executive and I was delighted to see his appointment to the board. I understand that some shareholders have voiced their concerns over the remuneration package, however given Clayton's skill sets and the volume of work in front of him to transition the business across to the United States I believe that the remuneration package is justified, albeit on the high side.
In terms of the newly appointed directors, I am not in the position to comment and I have not met the new directors, but they are from an accounting and legal background and not from the healthcare technology industry. I am sure that they will adopt a solid corporate governance mandate across the business, however they will not be able to provide strategic advice as to the direction of the global nursecall market.
The implementation of a more robust corporate governance will result in an increased cost base to the company in the short term, but in the longer term in will pay dividends.
I agree that I would not be concerned over the ex-directors divesting their stock. As you highlight, the (well justified) negative sentiment has resulted in both a depressed stock price and a depressed volume and it would likely be difficult for the ex-directors to secure a purchaser of their stock (as they couldn't divest this on market with current volumes).
I previously wrote that I felt fair market value for the stock was between 14c and 18c (when the stock was trading at 44c). I maintain that this range is correct, however given the changes in the business since determining this range (AUD/USD FX, Transitioning across to the US, Management & Board Changes) I would suggest that the lower side of this range would be appropriate, if not slightly below this range around 12-13c in the short term (which is close to where it is today).
At a $20m market cap, I could see a competitor offering in the range of .8x and 1.2x revenues for the business.
Under Clayton's guidance, I believe that in the coming years that the market capitalization will be around the $40m mark, almost double that of the current market cap. However, I would like to emphasize that I form this view over the period of years, not months - it will take some time to correct the issues of the past, develop the new platform, roll out a marketing department and absorb the high level of costs during the transitionary period.
In the short term (the next 24 months), I would expect financial results consistent with the prior annual report, reflecting the increased costs of the transition and the costs of addressing the legacy issues.
So as a short term investment, I would imagine that the stock price will likely remain close to the current price, however if you are prepared to wait for > 2 years, then you may receive a good ROI.
For myself, I currently do not hold any stock in AZV and not intending to purchase stock in AZV. However, in 18 months time I would re-consider the business, based upon the rate of the progress in penetrating the United States market.
For those interested in healthcare technology stocks, have a look at Alcidion, which has recently announced a RTO of Naracoota Resources (ASX:NRR).
Always back the management team first and foremost.
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