FGX 0.81% $1.25 future generation australia limited

Ann: Investment Update & NTA October 2015, page-7

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  1. 1,624 Posts.
    Hi Ert x2,

    Thanks for quoting a precedent. I always like an example to support a case.

    The CDM case shows the kicker the price gets once the options expire, but only has an impact when the shares are over the option exercise price. If their is an equal number of options as shares, and the NTA is $1.20, then the share price could be considered to be fair value at $1.15 (because the option exercise price is $1.10).

    However in this case, the share price is below the exercise price, so there is no drag (it doesn't start until over $1.10), so the FGX shares are below fair value.

    Adding the option price of under 2c, still results in a total price of below fair value, for FGX it's (($1.15 NTA + $1.10) / 2) - $1.10, so the options, IMFBO (In My Fact Based Opinion) are under valued.

    They are up 22% at the close, so I guess someone else agrees, but are still below my estimate of fair value.

    Cheers
 
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