rogerb, page-28

the prudential standard is very broad in terms of risk selection - standardised method (which MYS is on) has very basic slotting for customer credit rating and capital. So I wouldn't rely too heavily on regulations to ensure they aren't writing bad loans. I also wouldn't expect too much of a change in impairments in February - you will need to allow the book to season by about at least a year and for the book to experience some cyclicality.

I would suggest focussing instead on how the loans are being originated. Last read was that almost all loan growth is coming from brokers. Why would a borrower chose MYS over ANZ/NAB/WBC etc? Either because (a) MYS is cheaper and/or (b) MYS has better terms (e.g. poorer underwriting standards). There is no way MYS can increase the size of its loan book so rapidly without doing one, the other or both. UBS is being far too backward looking and instead should be forward looking to how the loan book is being shaped. I'm pretty sure they still don't have a Chief Risk Officer - Natasha Whish Wilson's Linkedin Profile says she left in April and I can't find an annoucement which says they've hired a new CRO. So at least half a year with no one in charge of risk and a loan book that is grown at 1.4x system growth, while the housing market is slowing.