Very creative!!….I have an image of an angry timbaj moving pallets randomly around the back yard talking to himself under his breathe about how he was going to “.....get that pesky RoE.....”
You are so desperate for me to be wrong, that you have gone back over your squiggly charts to find when the ding dong high or low capital price was on my favoured stocks ( 1…2 …3 years ago), so that you can suggest that I’ m under water on all of them (while ignoring all dividend returns) because my fundamental DCF approach just doesn’t work. You’ve got to stop looking at charts…..share prices are just traded values of pieces of a real business (like the Newsagency you might be thinking of buying). I am popping champagne corks because all those companies have met the higher end or exceeded guidance in the last financial reporting round. It is a mathematical fact that earnings drive total share market returns (dividends plus capital gains) over time, with some noise added by periodic PE expansion and contraction arising from Mr Market ( i.e. timbaj) trying to outguess himself and feeling alternately greedy or scared. This is what I look at, not your myopic shorter time scale of trying to predict short term random fluctuations. So, you don’t know when I first got long any of those stocks and what my total return has been , but what you do now know is that all the underlying businesses are performing well and generating significant cash flow in excess of their cost of capital.
So, yes I am half way through my second bottle of Verve Cliquot.
As far as the explanation for “my DCF” is concerned, I first suggest you wiki it (or what ever you do when you don’t read much) so that you understand that it is a tool that is quantitatively based (that means its got numbers in it) and not “mine”. Sure I have developed my own techniques to estimate the various inputs, but understanding the implications of those first requires that you understand the generic case, and then it is a whole new discussion that is probably too big for HC. But tell me, when it comes to short term volatility, why do you think all the other timbajs out there, along with the crack-head shorters, have any idea what a company is really worth, particularly when they don't seem to care much about that sort of thing? Back to the Newsagency question I have asked you previously, which probably got you moving a few more pallets around.....how would you know how much to pay for it? (Hint: the value of the business is what matters,)
That’s what I do: I monetise their stupidity…..not instantaneously (then it would be no fun), but over time as the market becomes the weighing machine.
I don’t know what you mean in respect of your super fund comments. Seriously, no clue………you actually scared me a bit there; you sounded like one of those psychos in Law & Order SVU.
As for menial tasks….yes all done thanks, and as you can see from the time stamp, its back to grinding through annual reports, building valuation models, and buying $1.00 for $0.50c.
FLT Price at posting:
$37.01 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held
(20min delay)
